Beware the Banana Republicans

Donald Trump isn't the only one in the GOP primaries peddling populist propaganda that could turn into policies threatening America's role in the world.

For every complex problem, the critic and commentator H. L. Mencken wrote a century ago, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. If the Sage of Baltimore were alive today to observe the presidential candidate who so far has crushed all opposition in the Republican Party, Mencken couldn’t have come up with a better description of his campaign applause lines and, if he wins the White House, the administration to come.

Donald Trump validated Mencken again in a town hall meeting last week when he refused to commit as President to honor US obligations to NATO. Repeating his scorn for European partners who are exploiting their American ally, Trump resuscitated his threat to abandon the alliance in a second term. A day before, EU President Ursula von der Leyen reported—and French EU Commissioner Thierry Breton confirmed—that Trump told her in 2020 he would never come to Europe’s defense. “We will quit NATO,” Trump said, according to Breton.

The stupidity of gratuitously devaluing the deterrence implicit in the US commitment to NATO and undermining American as well as European security goes without saying. As always, Trump’s retinue of Republican court jesters are certain to dismiss his statements as chum to bait his political antagonists. Von der Leyen obviously put the lie to their nonsense. But their dissembling remains no less troubling evidence of the political vacuum that has replaced responsible policies and politics at the Republican Party’s core.

That another Trump term would damage America’s standing abroad isn’t debatable. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde last week didn’t mince words. Having held almost every French cabinet portfolio that matters and led the IMF, Lagarde is no lightweight. “You just have to look at trade tariffs…his commitment regarding NATO…his attitude regarding the battle against climate change,” she said. “If we draw lessons from history…the manner (Trump) carried out the first four years of his mandate, it is clearly a threat.”

Europe’s leaders aren’t the only ones who have reached similar judgments after hearing Trump loud and clear. In the dozens of democracies comprising US friends and allies, the man-in-the-street has gotten his message as well. Surveying some 37,000 people in 33 countries at the end of his term four years ago, the Pew Research Center found 64 percent said they had no confidence in then-President Trump. In Europe 75 percent gave him thumbs-down; among Asian allies, only a third of Japanese and less than half of South Koreans said they were confident Trump would “do the right thing.”

For a party whose Presidents not only helped build an alliance that stabilized postwar Europe and maintained its security for a half-century, but also successfully guided NATO’s post-Cold War evolution into a broader continental pact, to ignore Trump’s caca is extraordinary. But set aside that disgrace. The fact that all but one of Trump’s remaining GOP presidential competitors aren’t confronting his comments suggests they believe he’s onto something. And like Trump, it seems, they don’t really care about the damage done around the world.

Consider the presidential contenders’ own words as they’ve addressed the leading, and arguably most threatening issues facing the country this year.

Last September Florida Governor Ron DeSantis vowed to make aid to Ukraine “contingent on the Europeans pulling their weight.” Last month, confusing further just what NATO allies will need to ante up in order to spring US help, DeSantis’s remarks ricocheted off the Israel-Hamas war suggesting US aid to Tel Aviv, not Kyiv, should be the priority. Last week, seeming to channel Rodney King’s wish that we all just get along, he appeared to wash his hands of the aid issue altogether, vowing it was up to Washington to end the war in Ukraine.

For US allies watching Trump’s GOP competition and trying to divine what they portend, DeSantis also isn’t the leading source of non-sequiturs fogging foreign crystal balls. On that score, Vivek Ramaswamy has lapped the pack. In addition to conjuring assorted bizarre conspiracies, Ramaswamy has voiced outright skepticism about NATO’s value, dismissed Russia as a threat, and told Ukraine to negotiate now, full stop. For Vivek, China is enemy number one. But when it comes to Taiwan and US support, the GOP’s millionaire millennial has told Taipei we’ll help until 2028. Then, don’t call us, we’ll call you.

Among the GOP primaries’ political survivors so far, former South Carolina Governor Niki Haley, comes closest to offering intelligible foreign policy stands. It’s one reason she’s drawn Trump’s ire. His former UN ambassador, she has vocally backed military aid to Ukraine and Israel and Taiwan’s defense, while lambasting Beijing’s alignment with Moscow and calling out China as the country’s leading threat. Indeed, her views on the importance of allies and US leadership contrast with her competition’s as well as Trump’s.

And that’s the point. Despite presenting traditional Republican positions, Haley remains an outlier not only in the GOP’s primary pack but also among the party’s rank and file. In fact, by their own admission, over half of Republican voters are comfortable with candidates at the party’s fringe. Consider a December Wall Street Journal poll: 56 percent of Republicans said Washington is doing too much for Kyiv. That’s five times the number—11 percent—who said US aid to Kyiv isn’t enough and triple the 20 percent of GOP faithful who told pollsters the current level is about right.

Most Americans spend more time picking their fast-food drive-through lane than thinking about foreign policy, election years included. To be fair, polls also show that doesn’t mean they are unconcerned about US leadership or allies. But when it comes to the two major parties, attitudes toward both are dramatically skewed. Surveyed by the Pew Research Center last May, 75 percent of Democrats backed NATO. Barely half—49 percent—of Republicans did the same. The same goes for US leadership. While 79 percent of Democrats told Pew the US should play an active world role, only 29 percent of Republicans agreed.

Speaking in October 1960 on the campaign trail in Michigan, John Kennedy addressed the connection between political parties and their leaders. “I believe that parties are important. I believe that the kind of men that parties pick is important. I believe that the party label tells us something about the candidate, something about the things for which they stand, something of their political philosophy.”

H. L. Mencken had a more cynical view. “If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them missionaries for dinner.” From the GOP’s grass roots to its presidential contenders, the polls, politicians, and their positions on the issues give the Europeans as well as other US allies reason to worry. And not just because of Trump.